August 30 – September 4, 2009
Hertie School of Governance and Romanian Academic Society organize between August 30- September 4 a summer school on early warning systems (EWS) and crises response in the Black Sea area and the Caucasus. Designed as a workshop for academics and independent policy experts from the Caucasus and other conflict regions of the Black Sea area, the summer school is sponsored by Black Sea Trust (a program of the German Marshall Fund) relies on the EWS model earlier developed by UNDP in South-Eastern Europe and Crimea. The location of the summer school: Kloster Lehnin, near Berlin, in Brandemburg.
It seeks to: – build regional policy analysis capacity – facilitate the creation of a network of trained and able experts, to monitor and analyze threats and report them publicly. The workshop will walk the participants through the steps of an adapted Early Warning Risk Assessment methodology. The process is designed to produce a real-time EW analysis of the key issues which may impact the country/region in question.
The broad sectors to be analyzed are: 1. economy and energy management; 2.social; 3. political/security/rights; and 4. environment and natural disasters.
In sum, the EW workshop/training is designed to allow participants to: 1. Identify and agree upon the sources of a potential crisis; 2. Determine the nature of the crisis the country may face in the country/region of concern; 3. Review the potential sources of indicators which can be monitored to allow forecasting of trend deterioration. 4. Analyze how the crisis in the country/region of concern may evolve (and identify potential consequences via scenario-building); 5. Identify and prioritize the problem areas and gaps which must be targeted/addressed; 6. Identify and agree upon the most effective manner in which the government and the international community can respond; 7. Determine the capacity of the current international framework in or near the country/region and whether it can respond effectively and in a timely manner; 8. Discuss how the international system’s response can be strengthened through better preparedness planning and coordination mechanisms.
The issues followed will be of two kinds: 1. national (localized conflict, economic and social crises) 2. regional (environment, conflict with spillover potential)
Convener: Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, President, SAR, Professor, Hertie School of Governance
Lecturers: Vladimir Socor (Jamestown Foundation) Edward Lucas (The Economist) Jorg Himmelreich (German Marshall Fund)
Photo caption: The Livadia Palace where Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin signed the Yalta Agreement, in February 1945.